Impact of Irrigation Reform on Rice Yield: Evidence from Triming Project Participants in North-West Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the TRIMING (Transforming Irrigation Management in Nigeria) project on rice yields of farmers in North-West Nigeria. Using a multistage sampling procedure a total of 666 respondents were randomly selected.  Primary data were collected from project participants and non-participants using the KoboCollect tool, and were analyzed using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and an Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model to rigorously estimate the project’s effect on rice yield while addressing selection bias and endogeneity. The result shows a statistically significant and positive impact of the TRIMING Project on rice yield. The participants rice yield had increased by 1,468 kg/ha compared to if they didn’t participate in the project, especially in Zamfara State, non-participating households, had a potential for substantial gains if they were to join (Average Treatment Effect on the Untreated, ATU =1409kg/ha), consequently, the overall Average Treatment Effect (ATE =1439) on the entire population is considerable. The ESR model confirms the presence of selection bias, with both observable and unobservable factors influencing participation and outcomes. However, the project's impact is heterogeneous, with effects varying significantly between Jigawa and Zamfara states, and between participants and non-participants in certain contexts. These findings support the need for region-specific implementation strategies, enhanced extension services, and improved input access. The study provides strong evidence of the effectiveness of targeted irrigation interventions and offers critical policy guidance for scaling agricultural productivity in Nigeria.